What if the positivist military anti-popular coup against the people and empire of Brazil failed?

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What if the positivist military anti-popular coup against the people and empire of Brazil failed?

Post by Ayumi on Sun Jul 09, 2017 4:07 am

Any thoughts how Brazil would be now, rivalry with USA, take sides with the central powers in ww1, imperialism, annexations, scramble for Africa? Make your alternative history, post here please.


Last edited by Ayumi on Sun Jul 09, 2017 7:22 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: What if the positivist military anti-popular coup against the people and empire of Brazil failed?

Post by jeanwickert on Sun Jul 09, 2017 6:38 am

I see a shattered empire anyway, if the coffee farmers never managed to overthrown the Emperor, then maybe they could buy (or conquer) land to farm elsewhere, what would perhaps (in the long term) start a new government, a new monarchy or many new nations in South America. There is no way the farmers would simply disappear, but I guess they would most likely adapt themselves to the new rules.

About the empire: I don't think the royal family would get involved in wars after the turmoil, later on maybe, but not right after the attempted coup

In my opinion Brazil would be very different today, small and not as messy (taking into account that the farmers and rich people left because of the mess back in 1889). One interesting thing to think about: from 1877–1903 the second wave of European immigrants came to Brazil - a lot of Italians and Germans (in southern Brazil especially), but also different people from more than 70 nationalities. So yeah, the whole immigration thing would be a lot different.

EDIT: typo
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Re: What if the positivist military anti-popular coup against the people and empire of Brazil failed?

Post by Ayumi on Sun Jul 09, 2017 8:15 am

jeanwickert wrote:I see a shattered empire anyway, if the coffee farmers never managed to overthrown the Emperor, then maybe they could buy (or conquer) land to farm elsewhere, what would perhaps (in the long term) start a new government, a new monarchy or many new nations in South America. There is no way the farmers would simply disappear, but I guess they would most likely adapt themselves to the new rules.

EDIT: typo

With the right policies to help ex-slaves and compensate the farmers the situation would probably quickly stabilize.

Why you see a shattered empire, more tham the republic?

why many new nations? if was the empire who unify and hold the territory Lusophone in America
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Re: What if the positivist military anti-popular coup against the people and empire of Brazil failed?

Post by jeanwickert on Sun Jul 09, 2017 9:59 am



With the right policies to help ex-slaves and compensate the farmers the situation would probably quickly stabilize.
Why you see a shattered empire, more tham the republic?

That's what I thought, but I was taking into account that things didn't stabilize

why many new nations? if was the empire who unify and hold the territory Lusophone in America[/quote]
^ Because of what I said about the farmers, (taking into account) that they didn't get along, I doubt that they were going to stay loyal or even remotely relate to the Empire

I am presuming that the farmers did not start another revolt. They just buggered off and after some time became distinct from Brazil
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Re: What if the positivist military anti-popular coup against the people and empire of Brazil failed?

Post by jeanwickert on Sun Jul 09, 2017 10:07 am

Ayumi wrote:Any thoughts how Brazil would be now, rivalry with USA, take sides with the central powers in ww1, imperialism, annexations, scramble for Africa? Make your alternative history, post here please.

What's your idea on the matter? what's your scenery? I never thought about it and I'm still trying to decide what would be most likely to happen (or what I would like to see happening)
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Re: What if the positivist military anti-popular coup against the people and empire of Brazil failed?

Post by Ayumi on Mon Jul 10, 2017 12:54 am

jeanwickert wrote:
Ayumi wrote:Any thoughts how Brazil would be now, rivalry with USA, take sides with the central powers in ww1, imperialism, annexations, scramble for Africa? Make your alternative history, post here please.

What's your idea on the matter? what's your scenery? I never thought about it and I'm still trying to decide what would be most likely to happen (or what I would like to see happening)

Something like this:

1890s:

After the failed coup attempted by the military, Pedro II abdicate (being tired of politics and needing health care) on behalf of Isabel taking the throne, Isabel advised by her friends and some politicians start a purge in the military. (like the great purge in the USSR)
Isabel, the Empress of Brazil seeking to stabilize the country become a iron lady, the old chancellor of liberal party, Visconde de Ouro Preto, is demiss, and Isabel apoint a new conservative chancellor. Isabel doesn't want to centralize more the empire, afraid of popular revolts, she gives more autonomy to the provinces far from Rio de Janeiro.

The economy was slowly recovering after the efforts of the paraguayan war and political instability in 1889, The Premier from Secretary of State for Agriculture, Commerce and Public Works make good policies and the economy reacts in a positive way.
The question with the landlord after the abolition of slavery resulted in a agreement between the government to compensate the farmers in a long-term.

Isabel was super popular among the people.

1894

As the situation in Brazil become stable, Isabel travels to foreign countries trying to get more relations and prestige for Brazil, one of her travels was to Great Britain, She really tries to get along with Victoria after the Christie Question, unfortunately with little sucess.

As 1900s is approaching, Brazil began a massive industrialization (Brazil already had some industries, but this was to be a massive one)
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Re: What if the positivist military anti-popular coup against the people and empire of Brazil failed?

Post by Ayumi on Mon Jul 10, 2017 4:11 am

The preparations of war:

february of 1897: Argentina seeking to protect the trade in the river Plate estuary, adquire land and taking advantage of Brazilian purge in the military was looking to annex Uruguay.

april of 1897: Brazil guarantee Uruguay afraid of Argentina movements in the borders.

may of 1897: tensions are starting to escalate in the Uruguay River, as Argentina moves troops along the borders, Brazil making war propaganda and Uruguay building trenches.

28 may of 1897: The Imperial Brazilian Navy (Armada Imperial) moves from Rio de Janeiro to Porto Alegre.

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Re: What if the positivist military anti-popular coup against the people and empire of Brazil failed?

Post by Ayumi on Mon Jul 10, 2017 6:05 am

8 june of 1897: A accidentally shipwrecking of argentine ship in the shores of Rio Grande do Sul starts a crises in south america. Argentina wants to investigate the causes, but Brazil denies.

In the in the meantime, the local brazilian population plunder the ship and killed 2 sailors.

10 june of 1897: A Ultimatum Is sended to Brazil by Argentina asking for permission to investigate the causes and reparations. giving only 24 hours to answer.

7 hours later: Brazil denies

13 hours later: Argentina cut off diplomatic relations

14 hours later: Brazil cut off diplomatic relations

19 hours later: a undeclared war is fight, skirmish between Argentina and Brazil along the Uruguayan river is reported...

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Re: What if the positivist military anti-popular coup against the people and empire of Brazil failed?

Post by jeanwickert on Mon Jul 10, 2017 6:52 am

That is savage! Very interesting, well done. Smile
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Re: What if the positivist military anti-popular coup against the people and empire of Brazil failed?

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