Alternative outcome of the russian civil war

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Alternative outcome of the russian civil war

Post by Brusilov on Sat Jul 08, 2017 7:35 pm

Picture this:
The white army defeats the red one and rescues the zar. Kerensky stays president, the provisional government becomes a government and the last sparks of revolution and communism are eradicated in Russia.

In my opinion the entire 20th century would take such a different path, that my mind can't even comprehend all of the possible outcomes of such a defeat for the RSFSR.

That's why I'm asking you for your opinions on this topic.
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Re: Alternative outcome of the russian civil war

Post by firemac on Sat Jul 08, 2017 7:39 pm

It would be interesting to see what would happen if the whites won against the Bolsheviks since if would Russia be capitalist? I'd like to see other opinions too.
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Re: Alternative outcome of the russian civil war

Post by Mr Trolldemort on Sat Jul 08, 2017 7:58 pm

The white army was a ride array of ideologies.  From monarchists to social democrats to mensheviks to conservatives and nationalists, it is doubtful that the coalition would last.  I would guess 2 possible outcomes had they won the civil war

1.  A new one would simply start up immediately after between the factions.  The civil war just continues with new alliances.  Russia stays in turmoil and countries such as the baltics states, poland and ukraine divide up the western areas.  Because of this, theres no serious power in Eastern Europe to emerge, with only a few regional powers squabbling.  Probably still have a ww2 scenario happen, as communism would still be a fear for many after what happened to Russia following it, but without the USSR, the axis is in a much stronger position than it was before.  After that it's hard to imagine as it's hard to decide whether the axis would win even without the USSR around.

2.  The white army (or a powerful group inside it) manages to unite the whole country with a ruler.  Communism becomes much less popular following the civil war, as it discourages future revolutions.  Russia becomes a more "moderate" state of varying degrees depending on which group gains control, but it is doubtful the absolute monarchy of the past would come back.  Russian relations between Europe is much better as the ideologies are much closer than our history.  Fascism would also decline and change slightly, as the fear of communism is not longer as big of a deal.  Russia still becomes a major power, but a cold war between them and the United States as not as likely to occur or be as intense, as a major factor was Communism vs capitalism, which doesn't exist.  So more peaceful history past ww2 than our own.
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Re: Alternative outcome of the russian civil war

Post by GeorgeIVofBritannia on Sat Jul 08, 2017 8:19 pm

WW1 Ends quicker.
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Re: Alternative outcome of the russian civil war

Post by Conquerer1234 on Sat Jul 08, 2017 8:53 pm

GeorgeIVofBritannia wrote:WW1 Ends quicker.
WW1 ending quicker because of the Whites winning? That is odd, because the Russian Civil War was uninvolved with the end of WW1 on the Eastern Front. Besides the Russian Civil War would have taken a couple years to wrap up anyways given the multiple white factions, the Nationalities trying to gain independence, and the overall better command structure of the Red Army. Personally, it is all up to the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk and if the Russians withdraw from the initial negotiations or not. If they don't then Germany can have a much stronger force for the Kaiserschlacht. (then again Germany would just start protecting the various countries that broke away from Russia.) It may be possibility that Germany might be able to win WW1, but the Germans have to attack before the Americans come in greater numbers, and break to Paris. (I can estimate an attack from spring of 1918 to summer of 1918) Even then Germany may collapse and we get a situation similar to 1933 in Germany except with a slightly weaker Hitler and with no KPD. It is all up to interpretation after the War ends. If the Bolsheviks do withdraw then we could see German forces in Moscow or Petrograd, (given the success of Operation Fautuschlag IOTL, Germany could feasibly take Petrograd) and an end to WW1 on the Eastern Front akin to OTL. (as Russia lost its capital and the Bolsheviks are gone, I don't doubt that Russia would give in, then pull a Romania and rejoin the War at the last second)
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Re: Alternative outcome of the russian civil war

Post by GeorgeIVofBritannia on Sat Jul 08, 2017 8:59 pm

Conquerer1234 wrote:
GeorgeIVofBritannia wrote:WW1 Ends quicker.
WW1 ending quicker because of the Whites winning? That is odd, because the Russian Civil War was uninvolved with the end of WW1 on the Eastern Front. Besides the Russian Civil War would have taken a couple years to wrap up anyways given the multiple white factions, the Nationalities trying to gain independence, and the overall better command structure of the Red Army. Personally, it is all up to the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk and if the Russians withdraw from the initial negotiations or not. If they don't then Germany can have a much stronger force for the Kaiserschlacht. (then again Germany would just start protecting the various countries that broke away from Russia.) It may be possibility that Germany might be able to win WW1, but the Germans have to attack before the Americans come in greater numbers, and break to Paris. (I can estimate an attack from spring of 1918 to summer of 1918) Even then Germany may collapse and we get a situation similar to 1933 in Germany except with a slightly weaker Hitler and with no KPD. It is all up to interpretation after the War ends. If the Bolsheviks do withdraw then we could see German forces in Moscow or Petrograd, (given the success of Operation Fautuschlag IOTL, Germany could feasibly take Petrograd) and an end to WW1 on the Eastern Front akin to OTL. (as Russia lost its capital and the Bolsheviks are gone, I don't doubt that Russia would give in, then pull a Romania and rejoin the War at the last second)

Well i'll be annexed I am obviously a bad King.
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Re: Alternative outcome of the russian civil war

Post by Last_surprise_commieV3 on Sat Jul 08, 2017 9:01 pm

A other possblity is that Black amry is able to get control over Ukraine
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Re: Alternative outcome of the russian civil war

Post by Conquerer1234 on Sat Jul 08, 2017 9:07 pm

GeorgeIVofBritannia wrote:Well i'll be annexed I am obviously a bad King.
you prefer diplomatic annexation or a declaration of war?
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Re: Alternative outcome of the russian civil war

Post by GeorgeIVofBritannia on Sat Jul 08, 2017 9:09 pm

Conquerer1234 wrote:
you prefer diplomatic annexation or a declaration of war?

Diplomatic. It's not violent.
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Re: Alternative outcome of the russian civil war

Post by Retro on Sat Jul 08, 2017 9:19 pm

Mr Trolldemort wrote:The white army was a ride array of ideologies.  From monarchists to social democrats to mensheviks to conservatives and nationalists, it is doubtful that the coalition would last.  I would guess 2 possible outcomes had they won the civil war

1.  A new one would simply start up immediately after between the factions.  The civil war just continues with new alliances.  Russia stays in turmoil and countries such as the baltics states, poland and ukraine divide up the western areas.  Because of this, theres no serious power in Eastern Europe to emerge, with only a few regional powers squabbling.  Probably still have a ww2 scenario happen, as communism would still be a fear for many after what happened to Russia following it, but without the USSR, the axis is in a much stronger position than it was before.  After that it's hard to imagine as it's hard to decide whether the axis would win even without the USSR around.

2.  The white army (or a powerful group inside it) manages to unite the whole country with a ruler.  Communism becomes much less popular following the civil war, as it discourages future revolutions.  Russia becomes a more "moderate" state of varying degrees depending on which group gains control, but it is doubtful the absolute monarchy of the past would come back.  Russian relations between Europe is much better as the ideologies are much closer than our history.  Fascism would also decline and change slightly, as the fear of communism is not longer as big of a deal.  Russia still becomes a major power, but a cold war between them and the United States as not as likely to occur or be as intense, as a major factor was Communism vs capitalism, which doesn't exist.  So more peaceful history past ww2 than our own.

Of course, but going into world war two, would the russians be able to withstand Germany like they did in WW2?

1st scenario: The Germans lost the war basically because they were too eager to screw over the Russians, the russians were able to use scorched earth policy to attrition the Germans to death. by 1943 the Germans were at their limit in the cold russian landscape. But, if the new Government wasn't harsh on its citizens like the USSR was, we could see a scenario where Germany won the second world war. If that happened, the era after the second world war would be much worse. The USA probably wouldn't be touched and thus they would be busy trying to best the Germans and Japanese, straining themselves to near collapse. Eventually Germany and Japan would beat the USA in everything, Becoming the dominant powers in the world.

2nd scenario: Of course, Germany could still lose world war two, but the Russians may still collapse. It is unlikely that the battle of London would have turned out much different, and Japan bombing Pearl harbor would still happen. If Germany beat the Russians, but could not stop D-day, Russia would still be severely weakened and maybe not even exist, maybe divided among several states like Ukraine, Siberia, the Baltics, Finland, Etc... Germany would also be divided among states since the USSR doesn't exist and the Allies would not be able to trust a united Germany. In this scenario the world would be more peaceful until the modern era, Russian rebels would want to reunite the Country, along with German states trying to reunite the German Empire. Both would probably cause major civil wars.

3rd scenario: Russia doesn't go to war with Germany. If that happens then Germany would be able to focus all of its supplies on the allies. Most likely a German victory. This scenario would be the same as the 1st but with a united Russia between the Germans and Japanese. Russia could eventually match the USA and surpass them in economy and military, but will always be afraid of the Germans and Japanese on their borders.

4th scenario: Germany and Russia still never war, but the Axis still lose due to Hitler's incompetence. Germany would be divided into many states, but Russia would still be whole. Rebels would eventually occur in Germany to reunite the Once great German Empire, ruined by the Americans, British, and French. They would most likely not take power. Russia could easily become an industrial and military power due to it not getting involved against the Germans and Japanese and taking a huge hit to its western lands.

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Re: Alternative outcome of the russian civil war

Post by Brusilov on Sun Jul 09, 2017 3:57 am

Last_surprise_commieV3 wrote:A other possblity is that Black amry is able to get control over Ukraine
No, I think not. Makhno could never withstand such a massive army as the russian one, which would by then be more experienced, better equipped and in bigger numbers.
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Re: Alternative outcome of the russian civil war

Post by Vozhd Alexander Kolchak on Sun Jul 09, 2017 5:09 am

In my opinion if the whites won the civil war kerensky wouldn't be the president of russia it would have been likely that Alexander kolchak became the ruler of russia after the civil war he would start to industrilize russia without the collectivization in ukraine and western russia the food production could have greatly increased there would have never been holodomor russia would very fast became an industrilized modern nation with a loyal population and well equiped and trained millitary their relation with the west would have been alot better and the leadership of russia would be very skilled in this scenario russia would help Czechslovakia in their crisis against germany and with that france and britian would follow germany wouldn't invade Czechslovakia beacuse the czech had a very strong millitary in 1938 and their border was very fortified plus with russian,french and british help germany would have been crashed hitler becomes more diplomatic instead of aggressive millitaristic and after alot of negotiations poland gives germany the province of danzig and after that the great powers of europe form a scientific,defensive and economic alliance working on solving problems like the inefficient agriculture in germany after solving that problem the nazi party compltely changes their idea of lebensraum and they decide that its not relevant anymore beacuse their problems were solved. our world would be much more advanced technologically and cultureally.
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Re: Alternative outcome of the russian civil war

Post by Retro on Sun Jul 09, 2017 10:50 am

Vozhd Alexander Kolchak wrote:In my opinion if the whites won the civil war kerensky wouldn't be the president of russia it would have been likely that Alexander kolchak became the ruler of russia after the civil war he would start to industrilize russia without the collectivization in ukraine and western russia the food production could have greatly increased there would have never been holodomor russia would very fast became an industrilized modern nation with a loyal population and well equiped and trained millitary their relation with the west would have been alot better and the leadership of russia would be very skilled in this scenario russia would help Czechslovakia in their crisis against germany and with that france and britian would follow germany wouldn't invade Czechslovakia beacuse the czech had a very strong millitary in 1938 and their border was very fortified plus with russian,french and british help germany would have been crashed hitler becomes more diplomatic instead of aggressive millitaristic and after alot of negotiations poland gives germany the province of danzig and after that the great powers of europe form a scientific,defensive and economic alliance working on solving problems like the inefficient agriculture in germany after solving that problem the nazi party compltely changes their idea of lebensraum and they decide that its not relevant anymore beacuse their problems were solved. our world would be much more advanced technologically and cultureally.

I barely understand you, mainly because of your lack of periods. Just saying in the future, do not forget periods.

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Re: Alternative outcome of the russian civil war

Post by King Zog on Wed Jul 12, 2017 11:38 am

First of all: Tzar*

I think that the monarchy would probably go on for a bit longer and then a nationalist figure would rise seeing rather than a communist one.
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Re: Alternative outcome of the russian civil war

Post by Cold War Communist on Tue Aug 01, 2017 6:14 am

For one thing, Russia would have been walked over during WWII. They would have ended up a proxy for the Allies and given troops, weapons, and machines to keep Germany depleting in a war of attrition.

The aid would need to be greater than any time before, because there is no way the Russian Federation (or empire) can match the industrial might of Germany in 15-20 years without Sovietizing.

Overall, without a Soviet Union, Russia is just a much weaker shell of itself. It wouldn't have left WWI better off by remaining imperial and there is no way it would have been economically viable long term to stay the course.
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Re: Alternative outcome of the russian civil war

Post by DavidlVofGeorgia on Wed Aug 02, 2017 4:13 pm

Putin is very close to the white's ideology. Russian Nationalism, expansionism, and anti-muslim. The whites won the long game.
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Re: Alternative outcome of the russian civil war

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