Independence Movements

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Which independence movement will be the first to establish a fully sovereign country and next to have an official member seat in the U.N.?

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Total Votes : 6

Independence Movements

Post by ceaserkhan22 on Wed Sep 27, 2017 11:43 am

As a lover of history and geography, there isn't many things in the news that spark my interest more then when the geopolitical world changes as new countries are born. The kurds just voted 92% for independence and Catalonia will vote this Sunday for independence. Scotland will likely have another referendum in the near future. A vote doesn't necessarily make a country officially independant, especially in the Kurd's case as the vote is largely ignored by Iraq and Turkey as the region is very complex and actual independence may be a far off actuality for the Kurds. The vote was a first step and will be interesting to see how this will play out. This thread is to discuss independence movements past and present. Starting off the thread here is a poll.
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Re: Independence Movements

Post by Mr Trolldemort on Wed Sep 27, 2017 1:53 pm

Here's my opinion for each of them

Kurdistan: If the USA provides considerable support to the Kurds, I think it would be possible for them to become recognized. Iran and Syria of course will be opposed and try everything it can to stop it, but Turkey could be persuaded/intimated by the US to recognize the country while it is still allies (although Turkey has been trying to find other options). The fact that Iraq while annoyed has gone so far as to allow the vote to happen without trying to surpress it is already a good start. But time will tell if it can survive in the chaotic area of the Middle East until it can be recognized Worldwide.

Catalonia: Spain is trying really hard to stop the referendum from happening, even if it has to use authoritarian means. It will definitely create tensions and I think Spain will have tons of unrest throughout the country, as other nations such as the Basques are using it as an opportunity to get even more autonomy. Either Spain is gonna break up and become even more decentralized or a bloody civil war is gonna happen in Europe and either option has worldwide implications.

Scotland: Depends on 2 things: When the referendum happens (if ever) and how it goes. Scotland is the easiest one for independence as the UK is willing to let Scotland go if it does and do to its position in the world and lack of objections, it would be recognized really quickly in the UN. But the question is whether the Scots will vote yes this time after the No vote by a fairly large margin just a couple of years ago.

Greenland: Actually very likely to become independent soon. Greenland is very autonomous from Denmark and a pro-independence party is already in power and made many substantial gains in the past few years (such as law enforcement). Many are only waiting for Greenland to be well off without help from Denmark and I think once the people feel they are ready, it will become independent. Of course not as uneventful, but one of the most likely in my opinion.

Chechnya: It won't happen unless Russia collapses like it did in 1991. All I'm gonna say. The last time they tried to become independent shows exactly what would happen if they did it in the future.

Wales: While there's a lot of nationalism in Wales, they are far too dependent and close to England for actual independence to happen. In addition, many are already happy just with the devolved parliament.

Quebec: Coming from someone who actually lives in Quebec, seperatism has declined quite a bit since the last referendum in 1995. The Bloc Quebecois has almost disappeared in Canadian Politics and a federalist party in currently in power in Quebec. However, it is still an important issue, and it could easily come back if Canada isn't careful. Many people are still nationalist and identify as a Quebecer over a Canadian, but they are still trusting of the Canadian government. I still think other countries are much more likely to become independent before Quebec though.

California: This is a joke, right? I haven't heard anything about independence since the US election because of how anti-Trump California is. I would be very, very surprised if it become an UN member before any of the other options.

Tibet: China is much too authoritarian to consider Tibet becoming independent. Nothing short of a nation wide collapse would lead to Tibet getting it's independence back.

Other: No clue, but several African countries have lots of violence over ethnic groups, so perhaps one country could become independent in the future, but I am no expert so I will not make any predictions there.
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Re: Independence Movements

Post by ceaserkhan22 on Wed Sep 27, 2017 2:37 pm

Right, Kurdistan kinda keeps getting screwed. First they thought if they help the U.S. defeat Saddam, then the U.S. would help them towards independence- didn't happen. In the last couple years the Kurds again believed that if they were at the forefront of defeating ISIS, then they will get support from the international community for independence- still nothing. It seems that the middle east is to fragile and delicate right now to support breakaways that would trigger responses from the big players and western allies such as Turkey and Syria especially.

Spain is already saying their gonna deploy police in Catalonia to block voting, could be a mess.

Scotland voted against Brexit while England voted for it, so if the referendum happened post Brexit the outcome may very well be different since the situation has changed dramatically.

Would love to see an independant Greenland, they already have their own language and left the EU (EEC at the time) while Denmark stayed in 1985 since their economy is made up 90% by the fishing industry (not a good situation to be in under EU regulation.) The Inuit Ataqatigiit, which is the party pushing for independence now has 11 of the 31 seats in Greenland's legislature, only problem is that their considered pretty radicalized to the left.

Chechnyan rebels are pretty much considered terrorists by the whole of the international community so it be pretty hard for them to get international support.

Wales is pretty integrated with England since they have been united since 1283, so that could be a tough one to get a YES referendum on, but would love to see it happen nonetheless.

Quebec independence has been quiet lately, not sure if we need a France 2.

Calexit or Ca-Leave-ornia was popular immediately after the last election. In fact Texit was even more popular right before last November when it looked like Hilary was gonna win. These state independence movements are usually kinda a joke though, similar to all the people who say "i'm absolutely gonna move to Canada if so and so wins," but they never actually do it. Plus the fact that an amendment to the constitution would have to be passed to even allow it legally. The only time an entire state/states actually left we had the most bloody american war with over 620,000 casualties, so probably not gonna happen again.

Agree with you on Tibet, China would never allow it. They still don't recognize Taiwan's independence. With all the anti-violence monks in Tibet it's hard to see them rebelling violently against their Chinese rulers, but crazier things have happened so you never know.
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Re: Independence Movements

Post by DuceMoosolini on Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:40 pm

I voted for Kurdistan, since I feel there are more significant barriers for the others.

Catalonia: Spain is very, very unwilling to let them go. They're deploying police forces into the area to seize ballot papers and arrest local officials, and they're blocking pro-independence websites. See here. It could happen eventually, but not anytime soon.

Scotland: The will of the people just doesn't seem to be there. Especially after last time. Since much of their infrastructure is reliant on the rest of the UK, independence would be stupid anyways.

Greenland: This movement came about due to geological surveys showing that Greenland sits on the world's largest untapped oil reserves. Since they have a population of about 60,000 people, that would make Greenland one of the world's richest petro-states. However, after oil prices plummeted and further surveys showed little promise of safe drilling sites, the dream died. See here.

Chechnya: Remember what happened last time? Not to mention, Putin has his pet warlord in charge of the area, who has a massive private army he uses to keep the people in line. See this (slightly outdated) article here

Wales: I didn't know this was a thing, so I can't imagine it's going anywhere.

Quebec: I thought this one died out ages ago.

Calexit: Yes, this is definitely a thing that will happen.

Tibet: Tibet would have to wriggle its way out of China's cold, dead hands.

Meanwhile you have Kurdistan, which has friendly relations with Israel and the US, major oil reserves, weak enemies, relatively strong armed forces, functional independence, and an enormous desire for self-rule. No, the referendum won't do anything. But Iraq will eventually need to choose between fighting yet another war to re-integrate the Kurds or else let them be. I think I know what they'll choose.


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Re: Independence Movements

Post by DuceMoosolini on Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:58 pm

On a semi-related note, another separatist movement looks like it might end up starting a war pretty soon. The Nagorno-Karabakh Republic is a secessionist area of Azerbaijan, populated mostly by ethnic Armenians. Armenia and Azerbaijan like to shoot at each other with mortars and artillery, and it got especially bad last year when about 200 people died. The problem is, Putin has a lot to gain from a war in the Caucasus and he's the only great power who matters down there. See here
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Re: Independence Movements

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