What if Mikhail Gorbachev's reforms succeeded?

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What if Mikhail Gorbachev's reforms succeeded?

Post by CptCrape on Sat Jul 08, 2017 10:12 pm

Would the Soviet Union survive and end up more like China? Or would it slowly and more peacefully dissolve?
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Re: What if Mikhail Gorbachev's reforms succeeded?

Post by walkerbull on Sat Jul 08, 2017 10:57 pm

To be honest the Soviet economy was a lumbering monstrosity. The reforms that were intended to boost the production of consumer goods went backwards very quickly because of the collapse in oil prices thus, resulting in a prolonged economic crisis. The Warsaw Pact was going to fall, that is why Gorbachev did not enforce the USSR's sphere of influence on Eastern Europe, with the perception that the United States would not interfere in the region.

Simply put, people were fighting in stores over people getting sausages, there is numerous pieces of footage where whole areas in shops where there was no food available.

If you really want to go full on to reform the Soviet economy, its gonna have to be drastic. The total removal of exchange controls in 1991/1992, along with huge austerity cuts was tough medicine in itself, causing a very deep depression. He would also have to contend with a weary Soviet elite, in this instance a coup would be very likely. Macroeconomic reform in China was relatively easy because its undeveloped economic position, along with continuity of leadership, where its leaders were able to gradually liberalize the economy with little difficulty. While the Soviets in contrast did not have the room for maneuver.
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Re: What if Mikhail Gorbachev's reforms succeeded?

Post by Brusilov on Sun Jul 09, 2017 6:18 am

walkerbull wrote:... there is numerous pieces of footage where whole areas in shops where there was no food available.

Trust me, that didn't change
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Re: What if Mikhail Gorbachev's reforms succeeded?

Post by CptCrape on Sun Jul 09, 2017 10:54 am

walkerbull wrote:To be honest the Soviet economy was a lumbering monstrosity. The reforms that were intended to boost the production of consumer goods went backwards very quickly because of the collapse in oil prices thus, resulting in a prolonged economic crisis. The Warsaw Pact was going to fall, that is why Gorbachev did not enforce the USSR's sphere of influence on Eastern Europe, with the perception that the United States would not interfere in the region.

Simply put, people were fighting in stores over people getting sausages, there is numerous pieces of footage where whole areas in shops where there was no food available.

If you really want to go full on to reform the Soviet economy, its gonna have to be drastic. The total removal of exchange controls in 1991/1992, along with huge austerity cuts was tough medicine in itself, causing a very deep depression. He would also have to contend with a weary Soviet elite, in this instance a coup would be very likely. Macroeconomic reform in China was relatively easy because its undeveloped economic position, along with continuity of leadership, where its leaders were able to gradually liberalize the economy with little difficulty. While the Soviets in contrast did not have the room for maneuver.
Interesting. Not to get political, but this seems like the eventuality of all socialist states, they can go well for a while but eventually their economy is going to fall apart and they will suffer food/supply shortages. We are seeing this right now in Venezuela, for example.
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