The miracle of 1914

The year is 1914. Archduke Franz Ferdinand visits Serbia despite warnings of unrest in the region. Along the way, his driver takes a wrong turn and by chance the Archduke meets with the wrong end of Gavrilo Princip's gun and is shot. The Archduke's wife, Sophiie, is also shot in the fray. However, despite the grave news a miracle occurs.

Doctors working around the clock are able to stabilize and save both Sophie and Ferdinand, and both are on the road to a full recovery. This scenario poses the question: If Archduke Franz Ferdinand survived the assassinarion attempt by Gaveilo Princip, what would have changed?

As always, it is best not to look too far into the future here, keeping to the most immediate affairs. However, one could speculate on the continuation of the Austrian-Hungarian Empire as well as when/if the First World War might even take place. I look forward to reading the responses!

Well assuming Austria-Hungary isn't pissed about the assassination attempt and doesn't attack Serbia, I think a World War was bound to happen sooner rather than later. Poland and the Ottoman Empire were also high tension areas, and Russia were still planning on taking back Constantinople. A diplomatic incident there could have easily occur, and bring all the alliances into conflict and war.

Ferdinand would make sure Serbia wasn't attacked. One of the main reasons Austria-Hungary attacked Serbia was because after Ferdinand nobody kept Hötzendorf from starting war. Hötzendorf tried to start war numerous times but Ferdinand stopped it. War still could've broken out but I doubt Austria-Hungary would've been the one to start it.

Germany decided that it had to attack Russia before 1917. By then Russia would be sufficiently industrialized to surpass Germany and invade.

We either get a new German-Russian Alliance or WW1.

DavidlVofGeorgia wrote:Germany decided that it had to attack Russia before 1917. By then Russia would be sufficiently industrialized to surpass Germany and invade.

We either get a new German-Russian Alliance or WW1.

Hard to industrialize when your own workers are revolting against you...
Even without the war, the Tsar still falls. Also three years is still not enough time to industrialize Russia enough.

Russia was rapidly industrializing already... Russia was the 4th largest economy by 1914. Its railway system would be up to German standards by 1917. Russia had begun industrialization in the 1880s.

German Chancellor Von Bethmann Hollweg diary July 7th, 1914 "Russia has become a nightmare. German Generals say there must be a war before it is too late. By 1917 Germany has no hope. So better 1914."

History credits the Communists for rapidly industrializing Russia but this simply isn't true. First, Communists destroyed the Russian economy as a side effect of the civil war. Then they rebuilt it with astonishing brutality.

It's kind of hard to tell, there would definetly still be a wwi, just because this spark was snuffed doesn't mean Europe isn't dowsed in gas anymore. Having Ferdinand still there, and assuming he gains the throne like he would have after Josef dies (which happened in 1916), the Austro-Hungarian empire would be a big difference, especially with someone who's a friend to the slavs in power. Who knows, he could have made a, Austro-Hungarian-Slavic empire like he proposed to quiet down nationalist temperment. Who knows, they could have still invaded Serbia causing the war that we saw happen, or seen a moer stable Austro Hungarian empire, with another world war starting from something else.

^A good assessment. IMO, the Austro-Hungarian Empire's days were numbered. The minorities of the empire were having children faster than the Austrians and Hungarians. The minorities, therefore, had younger populations which are more likely to revolt.

As a sidenote, the same thing is happening in Germany today. Ethnic Germans are not having children at the same rate as migrants.

Additionally, the railway system of the empire created maximum chaos and inefficiency because each ethnic group had its own sized tracks and train cars.

Interesting topic, but then it depends on Ferdinand's opinion, anyway, since he was a bit anti war, I think he wouldn't declare war on Serbia.

_Dewey wrote:Who knows, they could have still invaded Serbia causing the war that we saw happen, or seen a moer stable Austro Hungarian empire, with another world war starting from something else.

Would there still have been a war? I can't be sure, because even with the knowledge that Ferdinand was more lenient toward the idea of a federation, being shot could change your mind. It also didn't seem to make a difference to anyone what his position was. He was a target of the Black Hand nonetheless.


I would have to throw my hat in and say that the war would have broken out, but without Austria-Hungary leading the charge the result may be that the empire becomes a republic after the war. It might be that Germany launches a preemptive strike on France anyway as the peace process between Austria-Hungary and Serbia drags on.