New countries in Europe - Who's next?

In 2008, Kosovo declared independence from Serbia, becoming the youngest recognized country in Europe. It's been almost an entire decade since 2008, and I say that Europe is long overdue for a border change. What country do you think is most likely to become independent in Europe?

My vote is on Scotland. With Brexit underway, there's a good possibility that the EU-supportive Scots will declare independence from the UK to remain in the EU.

I can name you two.
First, would be the Republika Srpska in Bosnia.
They were the ones who started the bosnian war afterall and they wanted independence from bosnia for quite some time.
The second one would then be Catalonia which has a good portion, if not most, of Spains economy under control.
There has been quite a history behind Catalonias sucession movement.

Hmm...
I guess I would have to put my bets on Scotland and "Eastern Ukraine"
Scotland would probably be independent because, as said, Scotland doesn't want Brexit
Eastern Ukraine seems probable because there is the ongoing war, which could separate the east from the west

I'm almost certain Scotland is coming relatively soon.  The SNP had even controlled the entirety of what they intend to be the nation before the recount, and both referendums nearly passed.  The next one probably will.

I would say Scotland and Catalonia.

Belgium splitting between Flanders and Wallonia is not very likely considering EU pressures.

The rise of the Scottish Nationalist Party may lead to something in the not so far future.

I would bet Catalonia. If Scotland had another referendum I, which I doubt they will after recent losses in the UK GE, I think they'd still vote remain.

Scotland loves the UK too much to leave. Even if they don't know it.

Honestly though, probably Scotland or Catalonia.

If things go from bad to worse in Europe in the near future it's very likely some new ideologically motivated states could arise.

I personally think Catalonia is much more likely to become independent before Scotland does. Yes, both have considerable nationalist movements, but Spain is in a far worse position to deal with it than the UK is. If (however unlikely it seems right now) the current British government can actually accomplish a successful Brexit without damaging the country too badly, slowly but surely pro-EU sentiments will go down, which will reduce a major factor in the independence movement. Also, there's a reason why the SNP lost a lot of seats during the election. Many Scottish people don't want another referendum so soon, so it will take a few more years and a horrible administration before we see another referendum (and this is assuming the government allows one and accepts the results). So yeah, both countries can appear in about a few decades, but Catalonia would appear sooner imo

Eastern Ukraine maybe I don't know if that whole thing is settled yet.

I think the last new country in Europe was Crimea. Only a few hours or just a day (I don't remember) before being part of Russia, maybe in a near future in Donetsk and that zone of Ukraine will happen the same.

Btw I also think that Scotland will probably have the independence in a few years, just imo

If Scotland decides to leave the UK due to the EU, they will soon be running back with their tail between their legs.

BigMacArthur wrote:If Scotland decides to leave the UK due to the EU, they will soon be running back with their tail between their legs.

Why do you think that? I personally think Scotland can do just fine without being part of the rest of the UK. Unless the UK decides to full on blockade them, I think Scotland would be able to transition well and continue trading with the EU and use its benefits. Hell, they're even qualified enough to use the Euro if they wanted to.

Mr Trolldemort wrote:

BigMacArthur wrote:If Scotland decides to leave the UK due to the EU, they will soon be running back with their tail between their legs.

Why do you think that?  I personally think Scotland can do just fine without being part of the rest of the UK.  Unless the UK decides to full on blockade them, I think Scotland would be able to transition well and continue trading with the EU and use its benefits.  Hell, they're even qualified enough to use the Euro if they wanted to.

Scotland will not have an independent economy that can be set up in a few years. They cannot rely on oil and Scotland's gdp alone is growing about 0.2% each year compared to the UK's 0.6%. Not to mention that they will have to lower their trade deficit in order to join the EU, as it is triple that that the EU requires. Plus Spain will never accept a Scottish entrance into the EU.

It's not only that Scotland has too much of a troubled economy to join the EU and sustain itself, it also is much better off staying in the UK. Heres why. in 2015 63% of Scotland's trade was with the UK (e.i. England, Wales, Northern Ireland), I believe this is the biggest reason. For 300 years Scotland has been in the same country as England and Wales and they want to leave them in favor of German and Belgium. They need to stay...

I just thought since everyone here is debating about Scotland that I should join in the discussion, while Scotland looks like the most likely candidate to become independent in Europe from the outside, it seems quite unlikely and getting evermore so on the inside. Support of independence and the SNP is slowly dropping and everyone is growing weary of politics and elections and really just want political stability rather then another referendum. While, personally I am a 'Yes' supporter I think it will be another 10-15 years before Scotland tries to remove itself from the train wreak that is the U.K right now.

Well yeah, soon doesn't mean like right now. I predict in about 10-20 Scotland will be independent (or at least have much more autonomy than they have now)

I believe one factor for Scotland relative low gdp is due to having to rely with the UK while still having to compete with England which is more prosperous mainly because of London being a major business centre in the world. I think if they started to rely less on UK trade and start trading more with the rest of the EU I see themselves being able to sustain themselves moderately well if they became independent. And it would only get better for them as time goes on (especially with the way things are going in the UK right now)

Finally, why do you think Spain would hate Scotland being independent? I only see 1 reason in that it would only strengthen their own separatist movements. But even so, I doubt it would matter that much mostly because Spain is not really as big of a power in the EU as they think. Germany, France and several others have much more say in the EU than Spain would. If everyone else supports it, 1 country's objections shouldn't matter that much. Second, like I said before, I personally think Catalonia would become independent before Scotland. If it already happened, why would they care about another country's independence? The damage is already done.

Finally, like many countries in the past, it doesn't matter how long they've been under an union for them to consider independence. I'd give Quebec as an example. They've been under English control for nearly 450 years and independence is still a major issue (it's actually become more important in the past 50 years than in the last 300).

In the EU when decisions such as whether a country is allowed to join or not each country gets a veto, meaning that it doesn't really come down to 'everyone expect Spain is okay with Scotland joining therefore they can join' but rather 'Spain doesn't want Scotland to join, therefore Scotland doesn't join'. However, you have a good argument about Catalonia, and I have never heard it before. Even if Catalonia became independent however I'm sure Spain would still veto Scotland joining because it would be likely that if Catalonia became independent they would also be fighting for an EU membership, and if Scotland received one Catalonia would be more justified to receive a membership as well. Something Spain would not want, because of spite and in order to make an example of Catalonia to any other separatist regions.

Ah I did not know that was the case. I guess in that case Scotland (or frankly any independence movement in EU states) would probably never enter it since whichever country it broke off from wouldn't want it to join. But regardless, any addition to the EU would be beneficial for them. Rejecting a country breaking off is essentially breaking off a portion of their economical power. Even for the country it broke off from, it just makes the damage worse than it already is. If anything, making them join the EU just gives them more control over them (especially if you're a major power in it like Germany, France, even Spain).

I also remembered, there's also a possibility of Belgium spiting into Flanders and Wallonia. Any thoughts on that?

I would say Sprksa and novarussia (eastern Ukraine) granted that doesn't get annexed by MEIN Putin

I am always hoping borders aren't going to change soon- changing borders usually means conflict and I would hate to see Europe's era of peace end.
I am just going to have to reinforce the opinions of everyone else here- Spain and Catalonia. However, I also think Bavaria could be a possibility in the new future. Other than that, my only other thought is of the partition of Belgium, which was mentioned once before here.

The twines that bind the rope that is Spain are weathering quickly. My vote is for Catalonia, or Aragon, or Galicia, not necessarily in that order.

Cold War Communist wrote:The twines that bind the rope that is Spain are weathering quickly. My vote is for Catalonia, or Aragon, or Galicia, not necessarily in that order.  

The Basque country is definitely the second contender, their culture and language isn't anywhere close to Spanish.

As you all are saying in the case of Scotland and Catalonia, Catalonia will get independence in a referendum, therefore losing Spain the incentive to block Scotland's entrance, therefore letting it join. But Scotland and Catalonia are not going to join anytime soon, even if Spain lets them, as they would need to establish diplomatic, economic, and defence relations with other countries before they join the EU. If they leave now with their economies is poor condition, they will have a hard time establishing these connections with other countries and continues to dig themselves a bigger hole. There is a reason why it took Croatia and the Baltic countries almost twenty years to join the EU.

And also. Spain won't let them join even if Catalonia is gone, as there is still the Basque Country, Valencia, Andulasia and Galicia that has strong independence movements.

To finish this, Belgium has very little reason to break up, as the only reason is that Flanders is tired of pulling around Waloonia for its socialist policies, which when you think of it, is the same reason that Scotland wants to leave.

BigMacArthur wrote:as there is still the Basque Country, Valencia, Andulasia and Galicia that has strong independence movements.

I'm pretty sure the Andalusia Independence movement is much smaller than the others and much less radical.