New countries in Europe - Who's next?

BigMacArthur wrote:As you all are saying in the case of Scotland and Catalonia, Catalonia will get independence in a referendum, therefore losing Spain the incentive to block Scotland's entrance, therefore letting it join. But Scotland and Catalonia are not going to join anytime soon, even if Spain lets them, as they would need to establish diplomatic, economic, and defence relations with other countries before they join the EU. If they leave now with their economies is poor condition, they will have a hard time establishing these connections with other countries and continues to dig themselves a bigger hole. There is a reason why it took Croatia and the Baltic countries almost twenty years to join the EU.

And also. Spain won't let them join even if Catalonia is gone, as there is still the Basque Country, Valencia, Andulasia and Galicia that has strong independence movements.

To finish this, Belgium has very little reason to break up, as the only reason is that Flanders is tired of pulling around Waloonia for its socialist policies, which when you think of it, is the same reason that Scotland wants to leave.

1. You bring an interesting case with the Baltic countries and Croatia. However, I think there were several other factors that contributed to why they had so much trouble joining the EU. Both of these places were previously under communist regimes, the USSR and Yugoslavia respectively. By the time both countries broke up, it left everyone involved in bad shape, and desperate to catch up with the Western part of Europe. They had to begin liberalizing the economy, stabilize the political climate of their country, and being normalizing relations with nations they previously considered sworn enemies. Croatia even had to deal with a 5 year war against Serbia before it could begin building itself. Of course, any nation would have trouble breaking off from another country, but the Baltics and Croatia we're in a much worse position than any future European country would have, especially in somewhere like Spain or the UK.

2. I personally think the official independence would cause much more harm than joining the EU. Sure Spain could just refuse out of spite (especially for Catalonia), but Catalonia or Scotland joining the EU isn't going to change that much for them. It's not like they wouldn't have international recognition (which I'm assuming they would if they do proclaim independence and they don't get invaded) from most countries. It might take a few years, but after a while, if either country is still independent (and assuming are now qualified to enter the EU) it would just seem petty for Spain to constantly hold out and I think it would start facing some pressures from both these countries and other EU states who want to have increased trade opportunities.

3. I think you underestimate the independence movement in Flanders. The New Flemish Alliance is currently one of the largest parties in Belgium. The issue of language is a very important source of controversy. If Belgium didn't have such a large role in the EU, I doubt the country would still be around, as the differences between the 2 areas are so large.

4. It's interesting that you think Scotland is wishing to separate from the UK due to the UK's "socialist" policies, considering the separatist Scottish National Party (currently the biggest party in Scotland) is far more left wing than the Conservative Party of the UK. If anything, they want even more control of their resources than they already have instead of giving it to the UK, as well as the issue of culture which is still very much different from England.

In conclusion, I agree that the situation is quite complex for either country attempting to become independent. However, I think in a few decades, it is possible for either country to be able to gain independence, rebuild themselves without the support of their former governments and gain membership in the EU.

And about Spain, I think that the only "community" that could provoke some troubles to Spain is Catalonia, but I don't think that they could get their independence in a peaceful way and if all this matter leads to a Civil war I believe that the Central government would win, I mean, I don't think that Spain would let them, It doesn't have sense.

And about the other movements from the other communities of Spain... Haha I think that those are just a bad joke, those movements are not strong, maybe with the exception of Euskadi, but still not enough.

Haha I forgot that it says EUROPEAN countries haha:

Malotun wrote:I'm very impressed that any of you haven't mentioned the South of Brazil with the States of Paraná, Santa Catarina and Rio grande do Sul. They had a plebiscite one year ago and considering the poor conditions of Brazil... Oh boy!

And about Spain, I think that the only "community" that could provoke some troubles to Spain is Catalonia, but I don't think that they could get their independence in a peaceful way and if all this matter leads to a Civil war I believe that the Central government would win.

And about the other movements from the other communities of Spain... Haha I think that those are just a bad joke, those movements are not strong, maybe with the exception of Euskadi, but still not enough.

Yeah, I didn't mention them because I was focusing more on Europe lol

It all depends whether Spain will accept the results of Catalonia's referendum should it lead to a yes victory. If the majority say yes and Spain says no, it will obviously start a major conflict, which could escalate very quickly depending on how Spain reacts to the announcement. I don't think either side wants to risk a civil war over it, and Spain is not in a good position to handle it, and would be seen in a very negative light in front of the rest of the world. I think it would lead to either a very long civil war with Catalonia eventually becoming independent or Spain very reluctantly giving them independence and probably souring relations between the two for years to come.

Yeah, outside of the Basque country, most of the independence movements in Spain are hardly a threat. Galicia has some support, but its mostly in the rural areas and is more of extra autonomy and nationalism rather than straight out independence. The others are hardly noticeable, but who knows how an independent Catalan would affect this.

Mr Trolldemort wrote:

BigMacArthur wrote:As you all are saying in the case of Scotland and Catalonia, Catalonia will get independence in a referendum, therefore losing Spain the incentive to block Scotland's entrance, therefore letting it join. But Scotland and Catalonia are not going to join anytime soon, even if Spain lets them, as they would need to establish diplomatic, economic, and defence relations with other countries before they join the EU. If they leave now with their economies is poor condition, they will have a hard time establishing these connections with other countries and continues to dig themselves a bigger hole. There is a reason why it took Croatia and the Baltic countries almost twenty years to join the EU.

And also. Spain won't let them join even if Catalonia is gone, as there is still the Basque Country, Valencia, Andulasia and Galicia that has strong independence movements.

To finish this, Belgium has very little reason to break up, as the only reason is that Flanders is tired of pulling around Waloonia for its socialist policies, which when you think of it, is the same reason that Scotland wants to leave.

1.  You bring an interesting case with the Baltic countries and Croatia.  However, I think there were several other factors that contributed to why they had so much trouble joining the EU.  Both of these places were previously under communist regimes, the USSR and Yugoslavia respectively.  By the time both countries broke up, it left everyone involved in bad shape, and desperate to catch up with the Western part of Europe.  They had to begin liberalizing the economy, stabilize the political climate of their country, and being normalizing relations with nations they previously considered sworn enemies.  Croatia even had to deal with a 5 year war against Serbia before it could begin building itself.  Of course, any nation would have trouble breaking off from another country, but the Baltics and Croatia we're in a much worse position than any future European country would have, especially in somewhere like Spain or the UK.  

2.  I personally think the official independence would cause much more harm than joining the EU.  Sure Spain could just refuse out of spite (especially for Catalonia), but Catalonia or Scotland joining the EU isn't going to change that much for them.  It's not like they wouldn't have international recognition (which I'm assuming they would if they do proclaim independence and they don't get invaded) from most countries.  It might take a few years, but after a while, if either country is still independent (and assuming are now qualified to enter the EU) it would just seem petty for Spain to constantly hold out and I think it would... bla bla bla

To start off I would just like to apologize for a mistake I made. Scotland is not trying to leave the UK based on its socialist policies, but the other way around. Scotland is trying to leave the UK because Scotland's socialist policies, like the SNP. I misphrased that. The UK has been Conservative for the past seven years and there havn't been too much intese Scottish Nationalism before then. And the the resources, Scotland will have a hard time making use of its resources. In 2014 Scotland promised they would make $8 billion from oil revenuec in 2015, they made $68 million as oil prices dropped. Scotland doesn't compare to the Gulf nations on how they can sway the oil market.

The Baltic nations and Croatia joining the EU for so long after it was formed was because of their need to establish relations with other countries in addition to already existing problems brought up through the communist regimes which made it difficult for the countries to adapt to other european countries, which you were saying. But Scotland is part of the UK, which is in itself rather hostile to the EU and not as connected to Germany and Belgium as mainland countries. They will have to distance themselves from the UK in order to gain favor from the EU countries and that may create tension on the island of Great Britain. This may leave Britain in a Norway/Sweden position, which is not in anyones interest.

When you're looking at Spain's independance movements outside of Catalonia, you look at how much support they have now. But if Catalonia leaves Spain, Spain will be in economic ruin, which will probably increase the separtist movements in there land. Look at the Califrexit movement, before the 2016 election there were a few hundred hippies that wanted California to leave the USA, but now it seem there there are hundreds of thousands of Californians who want to establish a new soviet socialist republic. I hate Californians with my whole heart.

I just want you to know that I dislike the EU. You probably know that but I'll just make it clear. If these countries were to become independant, they should at least stay out of the EU.

This is a bit of a long shot, but I also understand Belgium presents the possibility for a breakup. My understanding is that it wouldn't be anytime soon, but that Flanders and Wallonia are distinct in culture and language. The distinction is enough to divide the nation.

Catalonia has my vote for the next border change. And on the topic of the Andalusian Independence movement, I don't really think that there's any great reason to leave anytime soon for majority of the people in the region. With Catalonia, the people there have a different culture, different tounge, and different customs. With Andalusia, you can't really say the same.

Scotland and Catalonia are the hottest in recent news. If Scotland has another referendum then they will have an easier path then Catalonia since the British government are OK with Scottish independence if the majority votes for it. Even if Catalonia votes yes Spain may still not legally let them secede. Personally i'd most like to see an independant Greenland from Denmark and Wales break off from the U.K. An independant Faroe Islands and independant Frisia would also be cool. I don't think there is an independence movement currently for the Sami, but like the Kurds they are an independant semi-nomadic ethnicity spread across the northern part of four countries. Sami=northern parts of Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Russia. Kurds=northern parts of Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. These are just to name a few of the more highlighted prospects.

ceaserkhan22 wrote:Scotland and Catalonia are the hottest in recent news. If Scotland has another referendum then they will have an easier path then Catalonia since the British government are OK with Scottish independence if the majority votes for it. Even if Catalonia votes yes Spain may still not legally let them secede. Personally i'd most like to see an independant Greenland from Denmark and Wales break off from the U.K. An independant Faroe Islands and independant Frisia would also be cool. I don't think there is an independence movement currently for the Sami, but like the Kurds they are an independant semi-nomadic ethnicity spread across the northern part of four countries. Sami=northern parts of Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Russia. Kurds=northern parts of Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. These are just to name a few of the more highlighted prospects.

True, I think Greenland could become independent very soon as well. Most people there are already preparing for it and trying to gain further autonomy from Denmark. However, I consider Greenland to be a part of North America and not Europe, so I didn't mention them before

I don't know about the independence movements of the Faroe Islands and Frisia, but I personally don't think they're are strong as other places, as for them Autonomy works out for many living there.

I don't see the Kurds becoming a country anytime soon (at least not all of the places) simply because all of the countries there range from grudgingly letting them be autonomous like Iraq to actively opposing them like Turkey. The current situation has been a double edged sword for the Kurds, as in one hand the weakened governments in Syria and Iraq have made it easier for the Kurds to reclaim their lands and making them have a stronger bargaining side for possible independence, but the bloodshed involved has been costly for them, and they are still under threat from invasion by ISIS (although not as serious as before). Anyways, they aren't part of Europe, so that's a discussion for another day.

Mr Trolldemort wrote:

True, I think Greenland could become independent very soon as well.  Most people there are already preparing for it and trying to gain further autonomy from Denmark.  However, I consider Greenland to be a part of North America and not Europe, so I didn't mention them before

I don't know about the independence movements of the Faroe Islands and Frisia, but I personally don't think they're are strong as other places, as for them Autonomy works out for many living there.

I don't see the Kurds becoming a country anytime soon (at least not all of the places) simply because all of the countries there range from grudgingly letting them be autonomous like Iraq to actively opposing them like Turkey.  The current situation has been a double edged sword for the Kurds, as in one hand the weakened governments in Syria and Iraq have made it easier for the Kurds to reclaim their lands and making them have a stronger bargaining side for possible independence, but the bloodshed involved has been costly for them, and they are still under threat from invasion by ISIS (although not as serious as before).  Anyways, they aren't part of Europe, so that's a discussion for another day.

Right, Greenland is North America. The reason i listed them is because they are trying to secede from a European country. Also most people know who the Kurds are these days, but the Sami are much less known, especially in the U.S. so i was using the Kurds as an example to show the somewhat similar situation of the Sami in Europe.

ceaserkhan22 wrote:

Mr Trolldemort wrote:

True, I think Greenland could become independent very soon as well.  Most people there are already preparing for it and trying to gain further autonomy from Denmark.  However, I consider Greenland to be a part of North America and not Europe, so I didn't mention them before

I don't know about the independence movements of the Faroe Islands and Frisia, but I personally don't think they're are strong as other places, as for them Autonomy works out for many living there.

I don't see the Kurds becoming a country anytime soon (at least not all of the places) simply because all of the countries there range from grudgingly letting them be autonomous like Iraq to actively opposing them like Turkey.  The current situation has been a double edged sword for the Kurds, as in one hand the weakened governments in Syria and Iraq have made it easier for the Kurds to reclaim their lands and making them have a stronger bargaining side for possible independence, but the bloodshed involved has been costly for them, and they are still under threat from invasion by ISIS (although not as serious as before).  Anyways, they aren't part of Europe, so that's a discussion for another day.

Right, Greenland is North America. The reason i listed them is because they are trying to secede from a European country. Also most people know who the Kurds are these days, but the Sami are much less known, especially in the U.S. so i was using the Kurds as an example to show the somewhat similar situation of the Sami in Europe.

What about French Guiana?

From what i've heard there isn't much of a push for independence for French Guiana as it is literally a French Department with a prefect. So French Guiana to France is more similar to what Hawaii is to the U.S. then what Greenland is to Denmark (an autonomous constituent country.) However that would be cool to see French Guiana become independent one day as they are the last part of the American landmass that is still controlled by a European country. If they did become independent, then there would be a Spanish, English, Dutch, French, and Portuguese speaking country all in a row in South America. However not to get off topic too much since this is a thread about European continental countries.

Catalonia is probably the best bet unless there's some sort of peace deal in the Ukraine recognizing Donetsk and Luhansk.

EmperorTigerstar wrote:Catalonia is probably the best bet unless there's some sort of peace deal in the Ukraine recognizing Donetsk and Luhansk.

Oddly Wikipedia says that war ended today. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbass

EDIT: Seems to be fixed

I have a question regarding how we determine "new" countries for this discussion: how does recognition work? I am thinking that some countries aren't internationally recognized by a majority, so would they still count if only a handful recognize their legitimacy?

For example, consider the Republic of Crimea, annexed within 24 hours by Russia after the Ukrainian Crisis began. I don't think it was recognized at all, yet technically counted as to hold a referendum and be annexed.

The problem is you can't predict how individual countries will recognize a specific country or not.

I'm guessing if Scotland become independent in the most likely scenario that the next referendum they vote yes and the UK accepts it it would be widely recognized by pretty much all countries in the UN after a few days.

Catalonia might be tougher, depending on Spain's reaction. It might end up turning out like Kosovo where it becomes recognized by a few immediately, and slowly more and more countries accept it as time goes by with the only ones opposed are the ones closest to Spain (like Portugal for example)

Either way, I consider both cases at least there will be a few that would recognize their independence, unlike Crimea.

Well, I posed the question seeking more of a way that we could determine what is or is not grounds for counting a country as "new" here, so that if tomorrow some far-fetched region of nowheresville broke off from somewherestown we could say either that it is or is not yet worthy of being called a "new country".

I guess I am thinking ahead to the inevitable future when we try to determine who was most accurate.

Scotland, Catalonia or republika srpska.

Kosovo je srbija

I would say Wales could become independent as well as Scotland, I could see other countries agreeing with this. Wales should become a country because it legit has a different language as its second official language thats like having New England recognize French as a national language but the rest of America only has english as a national language, it's messed up.

I have not been on this thread in a while but I need to respond to this. Slight differences in culture does not make a country worthy to secede. Wales has a population of 3,063,456, and only about 562,016 people spoke Welsh, that is 19% of the population. I'm not denying that the Welsh language is an important part of Welsh society, it's just that Wales has been part of England for 900 damn years and 81% of the population speaks English. This is no reason for Wales to leave the UK.

BigMacArthur wrote:I have not been on this thread in a while but I need to respond to this. Slight differences in culture does not make a country worthy to secede. Wales has a population of 3,063,456, and only about 562,016 people spoke Welsh, that is 19% of the population. I'm not denying that the Welsh language is an important part of Welsh society, it's just that Wales has been part of England for 900 damn years and 81% of the population speaks English. This is no reason for Wales to leave the UK.

You could make the same argument for Scotland and Northern Ireland.

CptCrape True.

Scotland

In Spain, the most recent poll taken out in Catalonia showed that less than 20% of the population support it now, and it is the strongest of the separatist movementsin the country, so yes. I´d say that the most likely to happen separatist movement will be the Scottish one, as the Brexit was a real boost to Scottish national identity, and it is still going on.

Federico the Great wrote:In Spain, the most recent poll taken out in Catalonia showed that less than 20% of the population support it now, and it is the strongest of the separatist movementsin the country, so yes. I´d say that the most likely to happen separatist movement will be the Scottish one, as the Brexit was a real boost to Scottish national identity, and it is still going on.

Where is the report that says this?